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Dr John Paul Gosling

Associate Professor
Statistics

Contact details

Room: 8.37
Tel: +44 (0)113 3430742
Email: J.P.Gosling @ leeds.ac.uk

Keywords

Bayesian statistics
Design and analysis of computer experiments
Expert elicitation
Subjective probability
Toxicological risk assessment

Research interests

My research interests are in the quantification of uncertainty whether it is due to natural randomness or to a lack of knowledge. My research focuses on two main areas: the elicitation of expert opinion and the design and analysis of computer experiments.

Elicitation is the process of translating someone's beliefs about some uncertain quantities into a form appropriate for use in a statistical analysis. An elicited probability distribution is often used as a prior distribution in Bayesian statistical analyses. Elicitation is therefore an important subject: it has a part to play in every Bayesian application where the data do not make the prior beliefs of the decision maker insignificant. My research in this field is the development of novel methods for eliciting probability distributions and the development of computer-based tools for elicitation (an example of this is The Elicitator).

Complex computer simulators are used widely in scientific research to study and predict the behaviour of complex systems. The run times of computationally-intensive simulators are often such that they are impractical to run the thousands of times as is conventionally required for uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis or calibration. In response to this problem, efficient techniques have been developed based on a statistical representation of the simulator. My work in developing these techniques has been to create an efficient input screening algorithm and to produce a statistical method designed to emulate simulators that are dynamically evolving for a fraction of the original computational cost.

Useful links

Personal page
Publications
The Elicitator

Current postgraduate students

Fatimah Alghamdi (2014)
Aziz Aljuaid (2014)
Ignatius Boateng (2014)
Thomas Higgins (2015)

Publications

Mistry P, Neagu D, Sanchez-Ruiz A, Trundle PR, Vessey JD, Gosling JP Prediction of the effect of formulation on the toxicity of chemicals Toxicology Research, 6, 42-53, 2017
DOI:10.1039/c6tx00303f
View abstract

Chu HH, Chan SW, Gosling JP, Blanchard N, Tsitsiklis A, Lythe G, Shastri N, Molina-París C, Robey EA Continuous Effector CD8+T Cell Production in a Controlled Persistent Infection Is Sustained by a Proliferative Intermediate Population Immunity, 45, 159-171, 2016
DOI:10.1016/j.immuni.2016.06.013
View abstract

Johnson JS, Cui Z, Lee LA, Gosling JP, Blyth AM, Carslaw KS Evaluating uncertainty in convective cloud microphysics using statistical emulation Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 7, 162-187, 2015
DOI:10.1002/2014MS000383
View abstract

Tennant D, Gosling JP Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats. Food Additives and Contaminants: Part A: Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment, 32, 1397-1405, 2015
DOI:10.1080/19440049.2015.1069407
View abstract

Boukouvalas A, Gosling JP, Maruri-Aguilar H An efficient screening method for computer experiments Technometrics, 56, 422-431, 2014
DOI:10.1080/00401706.2013.866599
View abstract

Boobis A, Flari V, Gosling JP, Hart A, Craig P, Rushton L, Idahosa-Taylor E Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures. Food Chem Toxicol, 57, 106-118, 2013
DOI:10.1016/j.fct.2013.03.003
View abstract

Truong PN, Heuvelink GBM, Gosling JP Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram Computers and Geosciences, 51, 390-399, 2013
DOI:10.1016/j.cageo.2012.08.010
View abstract

Gosling JP, Hart A, Owen H, Davies M, Li J, MacKay C A Bayes linear approach to weight-of-evidence risk assessment for skin allergy Bayesian Analysis, 8, 169-186, 2013
DOI:10.1214/13-BA807
View abstract

Troffaes MCM, Gosling JP Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of three decision methodologies under severe uncertainty International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 53, 1271-1281, 2012
DOI:10.1016/j.ijar.2012.06.020
View abstract

Gosling JP Bayesian analysis made simple: An excel GUI for WinBUGS Journal of Applied Statistics, 39, 1845-1846, 2012
DOI:10.1080/02664763.2012.679822

Gosling JP, Hart A, Mouat DC, Sabirovic M, Scanlan S, Simmons A Quantifying Experts' Uncertainty About the Future Cost of Exotic Diseases Risk Analysis, 32, 881-893, 2012
DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01704.x
View abstract

Truong PN; Heuvelink GBM; Gosling JP Expert elicitation for the variogramAccuracy 2012 - Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 251-256 2012
View abstract

Flari V; Gosling JP; Hart A; Boobis A; Idahosa-Taylor E; Rushton L Eliciting expert knowledge about the form of the dose-response curve for genotoxic carcinogens at low exposures and the implications for a level of concernTOXICOLOGY LETTERS, S260-S260 2011
DOI:10.1016/j.toxlet.2011.05.885

Johnson JS, Gosling JP, Kennedy MC Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations J STAT PLAN INFER, 141, 1838-1848, 2011
DOI:10.1016/j.jspi.2010.11.034

Andrade JAA, Gosling JP Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophets J APPL STAT, 38, 183-193, 2011
DOI:10.1080/02664760903301168

Conti S, Gosling JP, Oakley JE, O'Hagan A Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes BIOMETRIKA, 96, 663-676, 2009
DOI:10.1093/biomet/asp028

Kennedy MC, Anderson C, O'Hagan A, Lomas M, Woodward FI, Gosling JP, Heinemeyer A Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 171, 109-135, 2008

Gosling JP, Oakley JE, O'Hagan A Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions BAYESIAN ANAL, 2, 693-718, 2007