School of Mathematics

Search site

Dr Peter A Thwaites

Lecturer
Statistics

Contact details

Room: 8.27
Tel: +44 (0)113 3435188
Email: P.A.Thwaites @ leeds.ac.uk

Keywords

Bayesian Statistics
Graphical Models
Bayesian Networks
Decision analysis
Game Theory

Research interests

My research is at the intersection of probabilistic reasoning, decision theory and artificial intelligence, and

I am particularly interested in probabilistic graphical models, as used by researchers in these fields. In 2006 Jim Smith & I introduced the Chain Event Graph (CEG), which is a tree-like (event-based) graphical model, used for the representation and analysis of discrete asymmetric problems.

Between now and June 2017 my research will be mainly associated with the EPSRC project Modelling Decision and Preference problems using Chain Event Graphs (EP/M018687/1), for which I am the PI.

Useful links

Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Personal web page, including projects available to 3rd & 4th Year students, MSc students and prospec

Current postgraduate students

Fatimah Almulhim (2014)
Kathryn Laing (2016)

Publications

Thwaites PA; Smith JQ A new method for tackling asymmetric decision problemsInternational Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 624-639 2017
DOI:10.1016/j.ijar.2017.03.004
View abstract

Thwaites PA, Smith JQ A New Method for tackling Asymmetric Decision Problems International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 88, 624-639, 2017
DOI:10.1016/j.ijar.2017.03.004
View abstract

Keeble C, Adam Thwaites P, David Baxter P, Pgclthe SB, Charles Parslow R, Richard Law G Learning Through Chain Event Graphs: The Role of Maternal Factors in Childhood Type I Diabetes. Am J Epidemiol, 2017
DOI:10.1093/aje/kwx171
View abstract

Thwaites PA Discussion of 'Causal inference by using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals' by Peters, Buhlmann and Meinshausen Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 78, 989-990, 2016

Barclay LM, Collazo RA, Smith JQ, Thwaites PA, Nicholson AE The dynamic chain event graph Electronic Journal of Statistics, 9, 2130-2169, 2015
DOI:10.1214/15-EJS1068
View abstract

Thwaites PA Causal Identifiability via Chain Event Graphs Artificial Intelligence, 195, 291-315, 2013

Thwaites PA; Smith JQ Separation Theorems for Chain Event GraphsCRiSM Research Report 2011

Thwaites PA Using Chain Event Graphs to refine model selectionCRiSM Research Report 2011

Thwaites PA; Smith JQ A graphical method for simplifying Bayesian GamesCRiSM Research Report 2011

Cowell RG; Thwaites PA; Smith JQ Decision making with decision event graphsCRiSM Research Report 2010

Riccomagno E; Smith JQ; Thwaites PA Algebraic discrete causal modelsCRiSM Research Report 2010

Thwaites PA, Smith JQ, Riccomagno E Causal Analysis with Chain Event Graphs Artificial Intelligence, 174, 889-909, 2010

Thwaites PA; Freeman G; Smith JQ CHAIN EVENT GRAPH MAP MODEL SELECTIONKEOD 2009: PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING AND ONTOLOGY DEVELOPMENT, 392-395 2009

Smith JQ, Thwaites PA Decision Trees In Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis&Assessment, 2, 462-470, 2008

Smith JQ, Thwaites PA Decision Modelling In Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis&Assessment, 2, 459-462, 2008

Smith JQ, Thwaites PA Influence Diagrams In Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis&Assessment, 2, 897-910, 2008

Thwaites PA; Smith JQ; Cowell RG Propagation using Chain Event GraphsProceedings of the 24th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 546-553 2008

Thwaites PA; Smith JQ Non-symmetric Models, Chain Event Graphs and PropagationProceedings of the 11th International Conference on Information Processing&Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-based Systems 2006

Thwaites PA; Smith JQ Evaluating Causal effects using Chain Event GraphsProceedings of the 3rd European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models 2006

Thwaites PA, Smith JQ A Graphical method for simplifying Bayesian Games Reliability Engineering and System Safety
DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.012
View abstract