# School of Mathematics

## Dr John Paul Gosling

Associate Professor

Statistics

### Contact details

Room: 8.37

Tel: +44 (0)113 3430742

Email: J.P.Gosling @ leeds.ac.uk

### Keywords

Bayesian statistics

Design and analysis of computer experiments

Expert elicitation

Subjective probability

Toxicological risk assessment

## Research interests

My research interests are in the quantification of uncertainty whether it is due to natural randomness or to a lack of knowledge. My research focuses on two main areas: the elicitation of expert opinion and the design and analysis of computer experiments.

Elicitation is the process of translating someone's beliefs about some uncertain quantities into a form appropriate for use in a statistical analysis. An elicited probability distribution is often used as a prior distribution in Bayesian statistical analyses. Elicitation is therefore an important subject: it has a part to play in every Bayesian application where the data do not make the prior beliefs of the decision maker insignificant. My research in this field is the development of novel methods for eliciting probability distributions and the development of computer-based tools for elicitation (an example of this is The Elicitator).

Complex computer simulators are used widely in scientific research to study and predict the behaviour of complex systems. The run times of computationally-intensive simulators are often such that they are impractical to run the thousands of times as is conventionally required for uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis or calibration. In response to this problem, efficient techniques have been developed based on a statistical representation of the simulator. My work in developing these techniques has been to create an efficient input screening algorithm and to produce a statistical method designed to emulate simulators that are dynamically evolving for a fraction of the original computational cost.

### Useful links

Personal page

Publications

The Elicitator

## Current postgraduate students

Fatimah Alghamdi (2014)

Aziz Aljuaid (2014)

Ignatius Boateng (2014)

Thomas Higgins (2015)

## Publications

**Mistry P, Neagu D, Sanchez-Ruiz A, Trundle PR, Vessey JD, Gosling JP** Prediction of the effect of formulation on the toxicity of chemicals *Toxicology Research*, **6**, 42-53, 2017

DOI:10.1039/c6tx00303f

View abstract

**Chu HH, Chan SW, Gosling JP, Blanchard N, Tsitsiklis A, Lythe G, Shastri N, Molina-París C, Robey EA** Continuous Effector CD8^{+}T Cell Production in a Controlled Persistent Infection Is Sustained by a Proliferative Intermediate Population *Immunity*, **45**, 159-171, 2016

DOI:10.1016/j.immuni.2016.06.013

View abstract

**Johnson JS, Cui Z, Lee LA, Gosling JP, Blyth AM, Carslaw KS** Evaluating uncertainty in convective cloud microphysics using statistical emulation *Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems*, **7**, 162-187, 2015

DOI:10.1002/2014MS000383

View abstract

**Tennant D, Gosling JP** Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats. *Food Additives and Contaminants: Part A: Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment*, **32**, 1397-1405, 2015

DOI:10.1080/19440049.2015.1069407

View abstract

**Boukouvalas A, Gosling JP, Maruri-Aguilar H** An efficient screening method for computer experiments *Technometrics*, **56**, 422-431, 2014

DOI:10.1080/00401706.2013.866599

View abstract

**Boobis A, Flari V, Gosling JP, Hart A, Craig P, Rushton L, Idahosa-Taylor E** Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures. *Food Chem Toxicol*, **57**, 106-118, 2013

DOI:10.1016/j.fct.2013.03.003

View abstract

**Truong PN, Heuvelink GBM, Gosling JP** Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram *Computers and Geosciences*, **51**, 390-399, 2013

DOI:10.1016/j.cageo.2012.08.010

View abstract

**Gosling JP, Hart A, Owen H, Davies M, Li J, MacKay C** A Bayes linear approach to weight-of-evidence risk assessment for skin allergy *Bayesian Analysis*, **8**, 169-186, 2013

DOI:10.1214/13-BA807

View abstract

**Troffaes MCM, Gosling JP** Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of three decision methodologies under severe uncertainty *International Journal of Approximate Reasoning*, **53**, 1271-1281, 2012

DOI:10.1016/j.ijar.2012.06.020

View abstract

**Gosling JP** Bayesian analysis made simple: An excel GUI for WinBUGS *Journal of Applied Statistics*, **39**, 1845-1846, 2012

DOI:10.1080/02664763.2012.679822

**Gosling JP, Hart A, Mouat DC, Sabirovic M, Scanlan S, Simmons A** Quantifying Experts' Uncertainty About the Future Cost of Exotic Diseases *Risk Analysis*, **32**, 881-893, 2012

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01704.x

View abstract

**Truong PN; Heuvelink GBM; Gosling JP ** *Expert elicitation for the variogram*Accuracy 2012 - Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 251-256 2012

View abstract

**Flari V; Gosling JP; Hart A; Boobis A; Idahosa-Taylor E; Rushton L ** *Eliciting expert knowledge about the form of the dose-response curve for genotoxic carcinogens at low exposures and the implications for a level of concern*TOXICOLOGY LETTERS, S260-S260 2011

DOI:10.1016/j.toxlet.2011.05.885

**Johnson JS, Gosling JP, Kennedy MC** Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations *J STAT PLAN INFER*, **141**, 1838-1848, 2011

DOI:10.1016/j.jspi.2010.11.034

**Andrade JAA, Gosling JP** Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophets *J APPL STAT*, **38**, 183-193, 2011

DOI:10.1080/02664760903301168

**Conti S, Gosling JP, Oakley JE, O'Hagan A** Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes *BIOMETRIKA*, **96**, 663-676, 2009

DOI:10.1093/biomet/asp028

**Kennedy MC, Anderson C, O'Hagan A, Lomas M, Woodward FI, Gosling JP, Heinemeyer A** Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A*, **171**, 109-135, 2008

**Gosling JP, Oakley JE, O'Hagan A** Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions *BAYESIAN ANAL*, **2**, 693-718, 2007

© Copyright Leeds 2011